Judul : 25 crucial seats you should stay up for on general election results night
link : 25 crucial seats you should stay up for on general election results night
25 crucial seats you should stay up for on general election results night
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LONDON — Are you staying up for general election results night? Do you want to know which seats you should be looking out for? If so, look no further.
Here are the 25 seats that will indicate whether Theresa May’s Conservative party is on course for a landslide majority or whether she is about to suffer a humiliating upset at the hands of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour and Tim Farron’s Liberal Democrats.
Scroll down to see which of the seats from the five major parties could decide this election and the times they will be announced.
Sunderland Central
- Expected declaration time: 11.30 pm
- Winner in 2015: Julie Elliott (Labour)
- Labour majority over Conservative: 11,179
- Swing required to win: 13.38%
- Conservative target seat number: 136
One of the first seats to declare will be Sunderland Central in North East England. The seat has been held by Labour since its current boundaries were formed in 2010 and should be the easiest of holds for Jeremy Corbyn’s party. However, if Theresa May is on course for the sort of new Labour-style landslide that some polls at the start of the general election predicted then Sunderland Central will be our first indication. Even a close result here would spell major trouble for Labour nationally.
North Swindon
- Expected declaration time: 12.30 a.m.
- Winner in 2015: Justin Tomlinson (Conservative)
- Conservative majority over Labour: 11,786
- Swing required to win: 11.28%
- Labour target seat number: 129
If Jeremy Corbyn is heading for Downing Street then a victory in North Swindon will be the first clear indication. Narrow victory here for Labour, where the Conservatives have a nearly 12,000 vote majority, would not guarantee a Corbyn government but it would be a strong early signal that change is in the air.
Tooting
- Expected declaration time: 1.30 a.m.
- By-election winner in 2016: Rosena Allin-Khan (Labour)
- Labour majority over Conservatives: 6,357
- Swing required to win: 9.9%
- Conservative target seat number: 24
The battle for London’s marginal seats could be the decisive factor in deciding the outcome of this general election. While Labour campaigners report that the party is doing badly in its northern heartlands and the Midlands, activists report that their vote is holding up well in the capital.
In fact one poll conducted during this campaign suggests that Labour’s support could be up to levels seen in Labour’s 1997 landlslide. If that is true then Labour’s Rosena Allin-Khan, who won the seat in a by-election last year after its former occupant Sadiq Khan became London mayor, should have little difficulty hanging on here. However, Tooting is just 24 on the list of Tory targets, the party’s local candidate Dan Watkins is well known in the area, and Sadiq Khan won by just 2,000 votes in 2015, so a possible upset here is still on the cards. Business Insider will be live from the count to see which way it goes down.
Thurrock
- Expected declaration time: 2 a.m.
- Winner in 2015: Jackie Doyle-Price (Conservative)
- Conservative majority over Labour: 536
- Swing required to win: 0.54%
- Labour target seat number: 7
Labour fell just 500 votes short of taking Thurrock in Essex, in 2015. If the polls showing just a few percentage points between the two parties are right then this ultra marginal seat should be the first solid sign that Theresa May’s majority is in doubt.
The prime minister has said that her party need only lose six seats for Jeremy Corbyn to become prime minister. Victory for Labour here in Thurrock would be a clear step in that direction. However, one big hurdle stands in Labour’s way which is the collapse of the UKIP vote. In 2015, the party came within 400 votes of Labour. All ths polls suggest that their subsequent collapse has overwhelmingly played into the Conservatives’ hands. If that’s the case in Thurrock then Labour are likely to fall short.
Islington North
- Expected declaration time: 2.30 a.m.
- Winner in 2015: Jeremy Corbyn (Labour)
- Labour majority over Conservative: 21,194
- Swing required to win: 21.5%
- Conservative target seat number: n/a
Hell will have to freeze over before the Tories ever win Islington North, but Corbyn’s appearance at the count will be his first on election results night. With the exit poll and large numbers of results already out, will he have much to look happy about? It is worth staying up until 2.30 a.m. to find out.
Westmorland and Lonsdale
- Expected declaration time: 3.00 a.m.
- Winner in 2015: Tim Farron (Lib Dem)
- Lib Dem majority over Conservatives: 8,949
- Swing required to win: 9.14%
- Conservative target seat number: 92
Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron has not had a good election campaign. His early pratfalls over his voting record on gay rights were followed by a bigger failure to galvanise the 48% of voters who backed Remain for his party. Nowhere was this failure better demonstrated than in his prime time BBC One interview with Andrew Neil which will go down as one of the most savage in broadcasting history.
As Business Insider have previously reported, the Conservatives believe a successful “decapitation strategy” in Farron’s Cumbrian seat is now more than possible. And indeed some of the final national polls suggest that the level of ‘swing’ to the Conservatives required for such a result could happen. Were Farron to fall it would be a truly remarkable result and is certainly well worth staying up for.
Moray
- Expected declaration time: 3.00 a.m.
- Winner in 2015: Angus Robertson (SNP)
- SNP majority over Conservatives: 9,065
- Swing required to win: 9.20%
- Conservative target seat number: 93
Could the Conservatives claim the scalp of the SNP’s leader in Westminster, Angus Robertson? It certainly looks possible. Theresa May’s party has surged in Scotland under the leadership of Ruth Davidson and the swing seen nationally in the opinion polls suggests that Robertson’s seat of Moray could well be in play. Doing so would be a major victory for the party.
Dagenham and Rainham
- Expected declaration time: 3.00 a.m.
- Winner in 2015: Jon Cruddas (Labour)
- Labour majority over Conservative: 7,338
- Swing required to win: 8.52%
- Conservative target seat number: 84
Labour believes it will do better in London than the rest of the country. However, one potential upset for the party could come in Dagenham and Rainham where Labour is battling to hold on against a resurgent Conservative party.
The reason for their difficulties in the seat stem from the collapse of UKIP, which came second in 2015. Their votes now look likely to mostly switch over to the Conservatives, which would eradicate Labour’s majority.
Ealing Central and Acton
- Expected declaration time: 3.00 a.m.
- Winner in 2015: Rupa Huq (Labour)
- Labour majority over Conservatives: 274
- Swing required to win: 0.27%
- Conservative target seat number: 2
Almost half of the top 20 seats the Conservatives hope to win in this election are in London and Theresa May has already made several campaign stops here. Labour are hoping to overperform their national polling in the city.
However, Ealing, which was won by the Conservatives in 2010, only to narrowly fall to Labour in 2015, is still one of Theresa May’s main targets, particularly given that the local Liberal Democrats have rejected suggestions by Vince Cable to stand aside in a ‘progressive alliance’ with Labour. This seat now looks very winnable for May.
Ilford North
- Expected declaration time: 3.30 a.m.
- Winner in 2015: Wes Streeting (Labour)
- Labour majority over Conservatives: 589
- Swing required to win: 0.6%
- Conservative target seat number: 7
Labour’s Wes Streeting, who won Ilford North from the Conservatives in 2015, has been a very active member of the party’s intake over the past two years and a vocal critic of Jeremy Corbyn. His supporters believe this will be enough to save him from a Conservative victory in Ilford, especially given Labour’s expected better performance in the capital. However with only a tiny swing needed for the Conservatives to win this seat back, his position looks precarious.
Vauxhall
- Expected declaration time: 3.30 am
- Winner in 2015: Kate Hoey (Labour)
- Labour majority: 12,708
- Swing required to win (for Conservatives): 13.25%
On paper Labour’s Kate Hoey looks ultra safe in Vauxhall with a 12,000 vote majority over the Conservatives and an even bigger majority over the Lib Dems, who came fourth in 2015. However, Tim Farron’s party believe they can cause an upset in this heavily Remain-voting constituency where many voters are thought to be furious with Hoey’s high-profile support for the leave campaign and her association with former UKIP leader Nigel Farage. Will it be enough to cause one of the biggest upsets in this general election? It’s worth staying up to find out.
Clacton
- Expected declaration time: 3.30 am
- Winner in 2015: Douglas Carswell (UKIP)
- UKIP majority over Conservatives (2015): 3,437
- Swing required to win: 3.89%
- Conservative target seat number: 36
Clacton was won for UKIP by former MP Douglas Carswell. However, Carswell has now abandoned both the party and the seat. With UKIP’s national vote collapsing, this looks highly likely to fall to the Conservatives. If it does, it could mark the end of UKIP’s parliamentary ambitions for good.
- Expected declaration time: 4.00 a.m.
- Winner in 2015: Neil Coyle (Labour)
- Labour majority over Lib Dem: 4,489
- Swing required to win: 4.36%
- Lib Dem target seat number: 14
If the Lib Dems are having a good night then we will see it in Bermondsey and Old Southwark where the constituency’s former MP Simon Hughes is battling to win back his seat, which he lost to Labour in 2015. The national polls suggest he will have a battle on his hands, but Hughes remains popular in the area and will be hopeful of an upset.
Twickenham
- Expected declaration time: 4.00 a.m.
- Winner in 2015: Tania Mathias (Conservative)
- Conservative majority over Lib Dem: 2,017
- Swing required to win: 1.63%
- Lib Dem target seat number: 5
Another well-known Lib Dem hoping to regain their seat in parliament is former Business Secretary Vince Cable. This looks doable for the Liberal Democrats but only if they can outperform their current national polling in the seat. If anyone can do it, then Cable can.
Richmond Park
- Expected declaration time: 4.00 am
- Winner in 2017 by-election: Sarah Olney (Lib Dem)
- Lib Dem majority over Conservatives: 1,872
- Swing required to win: 2.25%
Zac Goldsmith has had a terrible 12 months. After losing the London mayoral election following a controversial and much-criticised campaign against Labour’s Sadiq Khan, Goldsmith went onto force a by-election over the government’s decision to go-ahead with Heathrow expansion, only to lose again to the Lib Dem’s Sarah Olney.
Now, despite saying in the past that he would not stand under a Conservative manifesto promising a third runway at Heathrow, Goldsmith is doing just that in a last-ditch attempt to win back his old seat. Will he be third time lucky? The Tories seem confident of his chances, even those who are not his natural allies. One ally of Theresa May told Business Insider they were shocked by Goldsmith’s return given the “f*** you” he had delivered May by forcing the by-election. So will Goldsmith’s gamble pay off or will he suffer his third humiliating defeat in a row? It’s surely worth staying up to find out.
Carshalton and Wallington
- Expected declaration time: 3.00 am
- Winner in 2015: Tom Brake (Lib Dem)
- Lib Dem majority over Conservatives: 1,510
- Swing required to win: 1.59%
- Conservative target seat number: 17
One of the big stories from the night could be the near extinction of the Lib Dems. One of the seats they are most at risk of losing is Carshalton and Wallington in suburban South West London. The seat was won from the Tories by Tom Brake in 1997 but now looks ripe for the taking for Theresa May, particularly as a majority of voters in the constituency voted to leave the EU, in opposition to Lib Dem policy of holding a second referendum.
Norwich South
- Expected declaration time: 4.00 am
- Winner in 2015: Clive Lewis (Labour)
- Labour majority over Conservative: 7,654
- Swing required to win: 7.90%
- Conservative target seat number: 77
Corbyn’s biggest supporters inside the parliamentary Labour party tend to sit in safe seats. One exception to that rule is former frontbencher Clive Lewis who was one of Corbyn’s closest allies before he stood down over the vote to trigger Britain’s exit from the EU with Article 50.
Lewis is popular on the left of the party and has been tipped as a possible future leader. However, that ambition could be thwarted if some of the more encouraging polls for the Conservative party turn out to be correct. Defeat for Labour in Norwich South would suggest that Labour were on course for a real drubbing.
Copeland
- Expected declaration time: 4.00 am
- Winner in 2017 by-election: Trudy Harrison (Conservative)
- Conservative majority over Labour: 2,147
- Swing required to switch: 3.5%
Trudy Harrison’s victory in the Copeland by-election earlier this year was a major coup for Theresa May and a signal that the party was on course for a landslide majority. However, Labour sources in Copeland say they now feel hopeful of winning it back under their candidate Gillan Troughton. It would be a remarkable turnaround and a sign that Labour is doing better than expected in the North West and therefore across the country.
Barrow and Furness
- Expected declaration time: 4.00 a.m.
- Winner in 2015: John Woodcock (Labour)
- Labour majority over Conservative: 795
- Swing required to win: 0.92%
- Conservative target seat number: 9
Labour only held onto Barrow and Furness in Cumbria in 2015 by the narrowest of margins and reports from the ground suggests that the Conservatives are feeling confident of taking it.
Overall the North West is looking to be fertile ground for the Conservatives. Big Labour losses in the party’s former Labour heartlands in North West England could prove to be one of the big stories of the night. Business Insider’s Adam Payne will be reporting live from the count.
Sheffield Hallam
- Expected declaration time: 4.30 a.m.
- Winner in 2015: Nick Clegg (Lib Dem)
- Lib Dem majority over Labour: 2,353
- Swing required to win: 2.12%
- Labour target seat number: 18
One of the biggest possible upsets on results night could occur in Sheffield Hallam where former Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg holds just a 2,000 vote majority over Labour and where activists from Jeremy Corbyn’s party believe they are in with a good shot of claiming the seat. If they’re right then there will be jubilation among Labour activists, among whom Clegg has long been a hate figure.
Maidenhead
- Expected declaration time: 04.30 am
- Winner in 2015: Theresa May (Conservative)
- Conservative majority over Labour: 29,059
- Swing required to win: 27%
- Labour target seat number: n/a
Okay so there’s basically zero chance of Labour claiming Theresa May’s seat but whatever happens on the night it’s still worth staying up for as it will be the first time we hear from Theresa May on results night.
By this point it will be pretty clear whether she is heading back to Downing Street with an increased majority or heading back to her home in Maidenhead with her tail between her legs. If nothing else the result will be worth watching to see May standing beside her rival candidates Elmo, Howling Laud Hope and our personal favourite star of many a general election night, Lord Buckethead.
Boston and Skegness
- Expected declaration time: 5.00 am
- Winner in 2015: Matt Warman (Conservative)
- Conservative majority over UKIP: 4,336
- Swing required to win: 5%
- UKIP target seat number: 4
Paul Nuttall’s fledgling leadership of UKIP has so far not gone to plan. He lost the Stoke on Trent by-election to Labour amid a series of rows about false claims on his personal website and has subsequently overseen the collapse of the party’s position in the polls.
With some suggesting this could be the last general election the party will stand in, Boston and Skegness could serve as Nuttall’s last stand. Failure to perform well here will almost certainly lead to calls for his resignation as party leader.
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
- Expected declaration time: 5.30 a.m.
- Winner in 2015: Calum Kerr (SNP)
- SNP majority over Conservatives: 328
- Swing required to win: 0.3%
- Conservative target seat number: 3
The huge rise in support for the Conservatives in Scotland under the leadership of Ruth Davidson means they could win a handful of seats from the Scottish nationalists in June. The most likely to fall is Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk in the Scottish borders.
Hove
- Expected declaration time: 5.30 am
- Winner in 2015: Peter Kyle (Labour)
- Labour majority over Conservative: 1,236
- Swing required to win: 1.18%
- Conservative target seat number: 13
Hove is another marginal seat that was once long-held by the Conservatives only to be won over by Labour in the late 90s. After a brief return to the Tories in 2010, Peter Kyle narrowly won the seat back in 2015.
With just a 1% swing needed, the Conservatives should have little trouble turning Hove blue again. However, supporters of Kyle, who is on the right of the party believe he has done enough to distance himself from Jeremy Corbyn to hang on. Results like this will form a big part of the battle over who is to blame if Labour suffer a particularly bad night nationwide.
Brighton Pavilion
- Expected declaration time: 6.00 am
- Winner in 2015: Caroline Lucas (Green party)
- Green party majority over Conservative: 10,423
- Swing required to win: 9.53%
- Conservative target seat number: 98
A victory in Brighton Pavillion would be at the top end of Conservative expectations for this general election. However, some polls suggest they may just do it.
One factor playing in their favour is the underperfomance of the Greens, who have seen an exodus of their voters to Labour under Jeremy Corbyn. Could this be enough to let the Conservatives through the middle in Brighton. It’s perfectly possible.
Read more stories on Business Insider, Malaysian edition of the world’s fastest-growing business and technology news website.
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